Sorry, none of the above replies flagged this topic as 'unread' to me
As it's been dry for ages, the bike has been starting fine with no issues, so I've not had a chance to really troubleshoot. A voltage drop test was one of the first things I done, but I could find no problems.
This morning however, was a little damp... and the bike refused to start. Same symptoms. Unfortunately, I was late for work, so decided just to get it running rather than do a full diag.
Top box off, seat off, 'special tool' (length of wire) ready... first, I try shorting the solenoid (it's raining, and I don't really want to kneel under the bike to reach the starter)... a few sparks, not much else, until my little boy shouts "smoke!" Huh? he's pointing at the starter, and the 'smoke' is just a wisp of steam. I try again, looking at the starter... a few sparks from the wire, and yes - definitely some steam coming from the connection to the starter motor! A closer look reveals the water around the connection boiling, and a nice purple glow radiating from the connection. That'll be the problem then (I thought 12V shouldn't discharge like that?) I jump the bike again (battery +ve direct to the starter motor) and it starts fine.
Now at work, I have a better look. The bike dried off on the way, but has since sat in the carpark having a 'wash', so is wet again. I'm still getting that corona discharge around the connection. Could be a marginal connection plus salt doing that. It's pretty, but obviously not optimal
No time to do much more at the moment, but I'll have a proper look once I'm home